The Emporer's COG Analysis..

We know they were evil… but the Empire didn't almost conquer the universe without doing a few things right.   Like it or not, the Emperor was a big picture strategic thinker who got it right most of the time (for what he wanted to do)..   He didn't whimsically attack his enemies..  He conducted careful planning that included some kind of decision making process.  Inside this process there were likely Center of Gravity (COG) analysis' which assisted him in determining where to focus his efforts.  His COG analysis would have shaped his grand strategy as it revealed the key weaknesses of his enemies.   

Clausewitz identified the COG as, "the hub of all power and movement, on which everything depends... and the point at which all our energies should be directed".  In the Emperor's case the Jedi may have not been the initial choice.  To the untrained eye, perhaps the Senate or Trade Federation would have seemed like better candidates.  In my attempt to understand the thinking I have build a COG analysis to walk you through what his staff may have done to ensure they got it right.  After all, the COG analysis is so important that if the staff gets it wrong and the leader doesn't catch it - he/she almost always loses.

So lets take a quick look...  The Emperor's staff likely undertook the following steps:

1.  Executed some kind of brainstorming session with a highly qualified group with diverse experience and opinions.  Darth Vader would not have been welcome in this group because of his dogmatic tendencies.. ie.. choke his critics.  The discussion would have been robust and the session would have produced a tight list of about 4 possible COGs.

2.  The group leader would have then embarked on a great effort to screen out the faux COGs.  This would have been tricky as the proposals could have had "defenders" who were emotionally attached and ready to defend theirs to the end.  The group leader would have also fought tenaciously against "Group think".. Group think occurs when too many like minded people rally around their leader and try to force their idea as truth. often the idea is flawed and, if accepted, negatively impacts the mission..  The Emperor was obviously too clever to allow this so he probably put together an A-List team that looked and behaved more like the Jedi Council. 

So, they would have had to rule out the Senate, Trade Federation, and perhaps a few more.  The Senate could have been eliminated because it was indecisive - it had no real ability to push back and therefore wasn't "the hub of all power".  The Trade Federation at one point it may have been a COG because it was attacked (manipulated) by the Order of the Sith Lords.  His staff correctly identified The Jedi because they best met the criteria.. They were the hub of all power (guardians of the republic) and certainly had the ability to threaten the Emperor directly. 

3.  Their analysis of the Jedi COG was probably a little different than mine however it rendered what would be some solid Objectives. 

Critical Capabilities: (These are the crucial enablers that allow the power base to function) Expressed as verbs: Sense, Attack, Influence, Command, Control.

Critical Requirements: (These are components or resources that enable the capabilities to be functional) They are typically nouns but also conditions: Training Center, Legitimacy, Networks, Light Sabers, Command and Control Center.

Critical Vulnerabilities: (These are critical vulnerabilities of the components of the critical requirements that are vulnerable to direct or indirect attack) These are also nouns: Jedi Council Members-Mentors/Trainers, power grid, Light Saber Production and Supply.

Undoubtedly the Crucial Vulnerabilities would have became some of his Strategic Objectives.  Because of the unique powers of the Jedi, all would need to be destroyed but priority would be given to the council's senior members such as Obi-Wan Kenobi, Master Whindu, Yoda, and the others who were not only senior adviser's but trainers and mentors.  The Emperor would need to attack the Jedi Temple either directly or indirectly..  In the case of the movie he chose to attack it both indirectly (seducing Anikin) and directly (Darth Vader and his Clone Army), but if he was interested in rendering it temporarily useless he could have achieved the same effect by targeting its power grid.  According to my COG analysis below he could have also pursued a simultaneous attack on Light Saber production and supply.  This would have been interesting because the Jedi are tied to their unique weapon - no Light Sabers = no Jedi..  

We know the Emperor failed... but was his strategic analysis wrong or did he fail in execution?  Did he fail because not everyone was on board with his plan - loose cannon "Vader"?  Or did he just bite off more than he could chew... I mean.. key figures such as Yoda and Obi Wan Kenobi escaped and eventually defeated him.  Would it have been possible to further break down the Critical Vulnerabilities from Jedi Council Members to Yoda and Obi Wan Kanobi?  In this case, all the Emperor would have had to do was eliminate them and the galaxy would be his.. uncontested.  Correctly identifying a COG is a difficult task and then analyzing it for its vulnerabilities is even more difficult.  But if the staff gets it right and builds their plan around collapsing it, chances of success are greatly improved.